Housing prices down again, but...

Here we go again with more confusing statistics - but this time it may actually be telling a story. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 major cities fell for 31st straight month, but for the first time since October 2007, the annual rate is not a record low. The index fell 18.6% from February 2008, compared with a 19% year-over-year decline in January, and was also down 2.2% from January. The index has not recorded a price rise since July 2006 and has fallen 30.7% since that peak. However, the rate of decline slowed, with the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index not hitting a record low for year-over-year drop for the first time since October 2007. This hardly sounds like news to break out champagne on, and it's not. But it is another indication that we're scraping along near the bottom. As IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport says, "We believe that the bottom is at hand and that sales will begin turning in the second half of this year." As previous recession s show, demand for new homes does not evaporate altogether, even in the hardest of times." Guess we'll see.

Consumer confidence up

Housing prices being down-but-not-too-far-down is not the only indication of a bottom to the economy either. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index climbed to 39.2 this month from an upwardly revised 26.9 in March - the highest since November 2008. Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions improved moderately, with those claiming business conditions are "bad" easing to 45.7 percent from 51.0 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" rose to 7.6 percent from 6.9 percent. Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months declined to 25.3 percent from 37.8 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve rose to 15.6 percent from 9.6 percent in March. "The sharp increase in the expectations index suggests that consumers believe the economy is nearing a bottom, however this index remains well below levels associated with strong economic growth," said Lynn Franco, director of the industry group's Consumer Research Center.